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Mexico's economy in sweet spot with steady growth and declining inflation
Weekly Update | February 11, 2011Mexico’s central bank provided heart-warming news for consumers.
It sharply lowered its inflation expectations for the economy in the first quarter of 2011 to a manageable 3%-4% range (from 3.75%-4.25%, previously). Moreover, the central bank stated that it expects inflation to decline to the 3% annual inflation target rate by the third quarter of 2011. The rosy inflation outlook came on the back of a 3.78% gain in consumer prices in January 2011, which was narrower than the 4.40% rise in December 2010. The central bank further added the icing on the cake by lifting its growth expectations for the Mexican economy in 2011 to a 3.8%-4.8% range (from 3.2%-4.2%, previously).
With steady inflation and interest rates, a stable currency value and a healthy economic growth rate, Mexico is quite clearly the envy of its peers in the emerging markets in general and Latin America in particular.
Over the last week, the top performers in our newsletter service were:
- Banco Santander Brasil SA (BSBR) +2.8%
- MercadoLibre Inc. (NasdaqNM:MELI) +2.6%
- Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:IBA) +2.5%
- Banco de Chile (NYSE:BCH) +2.5%
- Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (NYSE:SQM) +2.4%
Latam Airline Merger Stalls in Chile
The proposed $3.9 billion buyout of Brazil’s largest airliner, Tam SA (NYSE:TAM) by Chile-based Lan Airlines SA (NYSE:LFL) suffered a jolt last week after Chile’s anti-trust tribunal, TDLC, decided to temporarily suspend the agreement, following objections raised by a consumer group.
TDLC is reviewing the merger agreement to gauge the level of foreign ownership in the combined entity and the impact of the transaction on Chile’s domestic airline industry. Although LAN has asked TDLC to reconsider its decision regarding the probe, we expect the completion of the merger to be delayed well-beyond a year’s time, compared to the original timeline of 6-9 months. Meanwhile, Brazil’s regulator is reportedly unperturbed by the developments, as it stated that it will not seek additional information pertaining to the merger agreement.
Be patient here, despite the substantial dip in TAM shares recently I view this deal as a natural tie-up where both sides win. The acquisition of TAM will give LAN instant and significant presence in the lucrative Brazilian airline market, which clocked 23.5% growth in passenger kilometres to 70.2 billion in 2010. Tam gains substantial marketing and financial flexibility too! Obviously this also implies a rationalization of the routes and resources which is bound to stir up local political resistance.
Over the last week, the top performers in our newsletter service were:
- Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE:BVN) +7.9%
- Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE:PBR) +7.3%
- BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE:BHP) +5.8%
- Cosan Limited (NYSE:CZZ) +5.7%
- Empresas ICA S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:ICA) +5.1%
Brazil's Strong Domestic Consumption Attracts Foreign Capital
Corporate money is flowing into Brazil to take advantage of one of the greatest emerging consumer market opportunities of all time.
In Brazil, a $40 billion telecom industry is still buzzing with inbound M&A activity lately. Portugal Telecom signed an agreement to buy 22.38% stake in Brazil’s largest fixed-line telecom operator, Tele Norte Leste Participacoes SA (NYSE:TNE), for BRL 8.32 billion (or $4.98 billion). Japan-based network services provider, NTT Data Corp., stated that it will spend JPY 300 billion (or $3.7 billion) on acquisitions, with companies having a strong presence in Brazil being the primary targets. Brazil recorded foreign direct investment of $15.4 billion, against expectations of just $5 billion in December 2010. The country’s strong domestic consumption story should continue to attract foreign capital and spur economic development over the next few years.
Shell's venture with Cosan will mark the biggest-ever foray into biofuels by an oil major. The venture, which would create the No. 3 fuel distributor in Latin America's largest country, underscores cane ethanol's lure as an alternative to gasoline. The 50-50 joint venture, with almost 4,500 filling stations nationwide, will better position Cosan and Shell to compete with the two top players on the Brazilian fuel distribution market, state oil giant Petrobras and Ipiranga, a unit of Brazil's Grupo Ultra. Brazil's largest sugar and ethanol group, Cosan, said in a preliminary earnings report that quarterly net operating revenue rose 24 percent from a year earlier, boosted by strong sugar and ethanol prices and sales.
Over the last week, the top performers in our newsletter service were:
- NII Holdings Inc.(NasdaqGS: NIHD) +6.7%
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) +4.9%
- Petrobras Energia Participaciones S.A. (NYSE:PZE) +4.9%
- Telefonica S.A. (NYSE: TEF) +4.3%
- Banco Santander (NYSE:STD) +3.8%
Argentina Negotiating Investment Deals with Qatari and Kuwaiti funds
Weekly Update | January 21, 2011Argentina is making concerted efforts to boost its economic ties with the oil-rich countries of the Middle-East, with a visit by President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and a top-level delegation from the country to the region. The delegation seeks to obtain investment commitments for 24 projects in Argentina and presented the Kuwait Investment Authority with proposals worth $3.3 billion.
Argentina has a large Arab community, mostly of Syrian-Lebanese descent, with an estimated three million immigrants from the region out of a 40-million population. Buenos Aires last month joined several South American capitals in recognising Palestine as an independent state, drawing a rebuke from Israel.
What President Kirchner is really looking for to ink a partnership agreement with Qatar in establishing a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) regasification terminal in Argentina.
“We can reach an agreement with Qatar for an annual transfer of 5 million tonnes of gas per year. This would work out to 20 million cubic metres per day,” President Kirchner said. This could take care of the 20 percent of Argentine daily gas consumption.
I believe the initiatives with Qatari and Kuwaiti funds improve Argentina's credibility in the international capital markets and enhance the attractiveness of investing in the country. Argentina is still favored to be a hot stock market for 2011.
Over the last week, the top performers in our newsletter service were:
- Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica S.A. (NYSE:ERJ) +10.2%
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) +7.8%
- Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (NasdaqSC:GGAL) +7.3%
- Banco Macro SA (NYSE:BMA) +5.1%
- Braskem (NYSE:BAK) +5.0%
Chile pauses interest rate rises
Investors are nervously watching central banks of emerging economies. Given that the Latin American economies will need to tame inflation by raising interest rates in the near future, their governments will have to devise new measures to deal with currency appreciation from capital inflows ($203 billion in 2010, as per the World Bank).
Chile’s central bank maintained the key benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, following seven consecutive hikes. The decision is aimed at restricting the scope for further appreciation in the export-oriented economy’s currency. Although the central bank raised its 2011 inflation expectations to 3.6% (3.2%, previously), I do not view inflationary pressures in Chile as an immediate cause for alarm.
As commodities prices cool some of the pressure for rate increases could be lessened short-term. But can you expect copper to fall when the fundamental demand is still so strong?
Speaking of fundamentals, the top performers in our newsletter service over the last week were:
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) +17.5%
- Banco Santander (NYSE:STD) +13.6%
- Repsol YPF, S.A. (NYSE:REP) +12.5%
- Companhia Paranaense de Energia (NYSE:ELP) +8.1%
- Tim Participacoes S.A. (NYSE:TSU) +7.3%
Brazil Accuses U.S. of Melting Dollar
Don't blame it on Rio!
Currency wars took center-stage in Latin America this week as a couple of affected countries unveiled separate plans to put a leash on the rising value of their curren-cies, which has hurt export potential. The move comes in the backdrop of last month’s decision by the United States Federal Reserve to inject $600 billion into the American economy, aimed at boosting demand.
Top performers over the last week were:
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YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) +7.7%
MercadoLibre Inc. (NasdaqNM:MELI) +6.2%
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional S.A. (NYSE:SID) +6.2%
Vivo Participacoes S.A. (NYSE:VIV) +5.5%
Brasil Telecom S.A. (NYSE:BTM) +5.4%
OIl Discoveries in Latin America Fuel Stock Recovery
Weekly Update | December 31, 2010
Brazil uncovered a substantial amount of “black gold” in 2010.
In its backyard it has discovered that three of its offshore oilfields (Libra, Tupi and Iracema) hold oil and gas reserves in excess of 23 billion barrels of oil equiva-lent (bboe). The country reported record oil production in November (2.089 million barrels per day). I expect Brazil to emerge as the premier destination for energy exploration in the world, given its ample off-shore re-serves and the government’s tendency to balance the need for state ownership of energy assets with investor-friendly policies.
So, will the country be able to fund its infrastructure development by generating higher tax re-ceipts from the increased exports of oil through the state-owned Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE:PBR)?
Given that “PetroBras” accounts for over 12% of Brazil’s benchmark equity (BOVESPA) index, a stellar operating performance from the company will most likely also have a positive rub-off on the overall stock markets over the medium-term.
Top performers in our coverage universe over the last week were:
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Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE:PBR) +9.6%
Petrobras Energia Participaciones S.A. (NYSE:PZE) +9.1%
Gafisa S.A.(NYSE:GFA) +5.3%
CPFL Energia S.A. (NYSE:CPL) +4.7%
Braskem (NYSE:BAK) +4.1%
Argentine stocks beat other Latin American markets in 2010
Weekly Update | December 24, 2010
Argentina is attracting back international investors through its debt restructuring programs and growth.
Stocks there have gained an average of 50%, the best performance of the major Latin America countries, so far this year. This week, the government again offered its creditors long-term government securities in exchange for $6.1 billion of debt.(It completed a similar program worth $12.2 billion in June). Along with better access to debt markets, the country's fundamentals should continue to improve in 2011. The central bank forecasts the economy will grow 9 percent this year, the fastest pace since 2005. Despite the upcoming presidential elections, Argentina's recovery will still benefit from higher exported commodity prices and strong growth in Brazil, the main destination for the country’s products.
On top of this, higher infrastructure investment will have an impact on the Argentine stocks in our portfolio.
Top performers in our coverage universe over the last week were:
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YPF S.A. (NYSE:YPF) +17.1%
Brasil Telecom S.A. (NYSE:BTM) +8.9%
Cemex SAB de C.V. (NYSE:CX) +5.6%
Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (NasdaqSC:GGAL) +5.4%
Cosan Limited (NYSE:CZZ) +5.3%
Infrastructure spending still lags in Latin America.
Weekly Update | December 17, 2010
Brazil's building boom in continuing.
With an eye on hosting upcoming global sporting events such as the 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games in Rio, the Brazilian government announced several measures to encourage infrastructure investments. The measures include funding to purchase corporate bonds, massive tax cuts to investors in bonds used to raise funds for infrastructure projects and a partial rollback of taxes on capital inflow from overseas. Brazil’s investment in its infrastructure has lagged that of emerging market leaders. In terms of investment-to-GDP ratio, Brazil averaged 17% over the past five years far less than China (44%), India (38%) and Russia (24%).
Obviously this higher investment will have an impact on the Brazilian economy. Stay tuned to see how Brazil's government finances this relative to its current revenue stream.
Top performers in our coverage universe over the last week were:
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NII Holdings (NasdaqGS: NIHD) +8.9%
Braskem (NYSE:BAK) +6.3%
Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de São Paulo (NYSE:SBS) +4.9%
Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (NYSE:ABV) +4.8%
Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:IBA) +4.3%
Brazil likely to raise interest rates next year
Weekly Update | December 10, 2010
There are signs of inflation ahead in Brazil.
Some of the most interesting news of the week came from increasing inflation concerns in Brazil. The country’s central bank has adopted a wait-and-watch policy toward interest rates as it decided to maintain the key benchmark (Selic) rate at 10.75%. Its recent measures to curtail credit growth by hiking bank reserve requirements may, however, not be able to tame inflation in the short term, as seen from the recently 5.47% cpi growth versus the 4.5% target.
I expect Alexandre Tombini, the incoming central bank resident, to give the Selic rate a good bump upward, given the backdrop of robust domestic demand, low unemployment levels and a rising inflationary outlook.
Guess which stocks are likely to be hurt by this?